A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
