Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
